Question

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
10
6
Total Forecasters50
Community Prediction
89%
(81.9% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
7.3
Community Peer Score
0.9
Authors:
PeterWildeford
Opened:Apr 29, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:May 1, 2023
Regulation of AI
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard