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Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?
The Student Starcraft AI Tournament (SSCAIT) is a Starcraft bot competition held yearly since 2011. Together with AIIDE and CIG it is one of the three big AI tournaments for Starcraft 1. This year's tournament has started and you can watch it live here.
The favorite to win is Samsung's SAIDA bot, which got 1st place at the last big AI tournament "AIIDE 2018". It defeated Facebook's bot CherryPi which got 2nd place (results; CherryPi isn't participating in this year's SSCAIT). Although SAIDA is a rule-based bot (written in C++) like the other top competitors, it also incorporates some machine learning to predict enemy units in the fog of war.
Two competitors and bot authors, LetaBot and Jay Scott, have made predictions on the winner of SSCAIT 2018. According to them, some challengers to look out for are the protoss bots Locutus, BananaBrain, PurpleWave and the terran bot Iron bot. SAIDA plays terran. Lest one think that zerg bots are weak, last year's SSCAIT had two zerg finalists.
Current standings are here. SSCAIT has a Student division to award the best performing bot created by a student, and an open Mixed division.
We ask: Will SAIDA win the Mixed division of SSCAIT 2018?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.