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Will superparticles be discovered at the Large Hadron Collider by July 8, 2016?

Superparticles are partners to the standard model model particles such as protons, electrons, and photons, which would exist in supersymmetric models of fundamental physics.

Looking for signatures of supersymmetry is one of the primary goals of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which restarted recently for its second run.

The question will be considered resolved in the affirmative if a bet between Frank Wilczek and Garrett Lisi, refereed by Max Tegmark, is resolved in favor of Wilczek.

Categories: Research Impact, Scientific Discoveries, Physical Sciences – General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology, Physical Sciences – High Energy Physics

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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.