conditional
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3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026? | Date of Artificial General Intelligence |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 23 Mar 2026 | — |
| median | 16 Feb 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | Dec 2034 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 0.1% | — |
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch