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15
forecasters
7
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15 forecasters
Artificial Intelligence
2 more...
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
Resolved:
No
15 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
16 May 2030
Resolved:
Annulled
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
15 Apr 2028
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if Yes
5.4%
if No
4.3%
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result:
Yes
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Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
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2 or 3
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4 or 5
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6 or 7
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chance
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OpenAI Triggers 'Assist Clause'
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result:
No
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Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
Current estimate
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AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
63%
chance
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AI labs collaborate at least a little on safety in 2030?
11%
chance
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Will an AGI be trained on cheap hardware before 2040?
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chance