Make a Prediction
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026? | Date of Artificial General Intelligence |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: - | |
| My Prediction: - |
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 03 Oct 2026 | — |
| median | 10 Feb 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | Aug 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2199 | 0.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1.1% chance
397
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
4% chance
81
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
35 forecasters
Authors:
Opened:May 17, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1.1% chance
397
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
4% chance
81
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
35 forecasters