67 forecasters

Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

dschwarz will_aldred

Opened:

May 23, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 15, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 25, 2023

Artificial Intelligence

Computing and Math

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26

Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?