Question
How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?
Total Forecasters14
Community Prediction
11.6
(6.6 - 16.1)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-12 | 0.9% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 6.598 | — |
| median | 11.62 | — |
| upper 75% | 16.08 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >60 | 0.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jun 19, 2023
Closed:Jan 2, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 21, 2023
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
20 Feb 2025
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
02 Jan 2025
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.1×10²⁵
Authors:
Opened:Jun 19, 2023
Closed:Jan 2, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 21, 2023
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
20 Feb 2025
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
02 Jan 2025
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.1×10²⁵