11 comments
49 forecasters
When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:Aug 8, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 14, 2023
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When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
16 forecasters
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
21 forecasters
By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?
14 Dec 2025
(23 May 2025 - 19 Nov 2026)
14 Dec 2025
(23 May 2025 - 19 Nov 2026)
16 forecasters