Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
11
comments
49
forecasters
When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?
community
16 Nov 2024
result
13 May 2024
Share
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
dschwarz
will_aldred
Opened:
Jun 12, 2023
Closes:
Dec 31, 2025
Resolved:
Aug 8, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:
Jun 14, 2023
Business of AI
AI Technical Benchmarks
Artificial Intelligence
2021-2025 Leaderboard
News Match
'AI Psychosis' Safety Tests Find Models Respond Differently
Psychology Today
•
Sep 15, 2025
OpenAI Identifies Reason ChatGPT 'Hallucinates'
Newsweek
•
Sep 9, 2025
Are bad incentives to blame for AI hallucinations?
TechCrunch
•
Sep 8, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
15
forecasters
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
8
Mar 2034
6
Jun 2032
4
31 May 2029
1 other
21
forecasters
By what date will an AI system demonstrate human-level accuracy in extracting data from all types of charts in documents?
16 Oct 2025
(15 Apr 2025 - 03 Sep 2026)
16 Oct 2025
(15 Apr 2025 - 03 Sep 2026)
16
forecasters
Show More Questions