Question
When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?
Resolved:13 May 2024Total Forecasters50
Community Prediction
16 Nov 2024
(07 Jul 2024 - 15 Apr 2025)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 07 Jul 2024 | — |
| median | 16 Nov 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 15 Apr 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >31 Dec 2025 | 9.1% | — |
What was the final result?13 May 2024
Community Baseline Score
9.4
Community Peer Score
18.6
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 14, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Resolves:Dec 31, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 14, 2023