Question

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?

Resolved:No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters214

Community Prediction

12%

(6% - 27%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

86.2

Community Peer Score

30.2

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Mar 14, 2016

Closes:

Dec 1, 2017

Resolves:

Dec 30, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 15, 2016

Natural Sciences

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Who will launch nukes first amid WW3 fears, according to experts

Daily Mail•Jun 20, 2025

World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

Al Jazeera•Jun 16, 2025

Major powers are ‘upgrading existing weapons and adding newer versions’

•Jun 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

75%

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

89%