214 forecasters

Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?

12%chance

12%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 12% chance, and it resolved No.

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 14, 2016

Closes:

Dec 1, 2017

Resolved:

Dec 30, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 15, 2016

Natural Sciences

Nuclear Technology & Risks

🏆 2016-2020 Leaderboard

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