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Will Rossi's 1MW "E-Cat" tests lead to continued significant financial investment?
For the past 4 years, Andrea Rossi has been claiming to make large amounts of heat in his various "E-Cat" reactors, apparently inexplicable in terms of chemical reactions, and was even granted a patent for the device.
Prior claims of cold fusion have been strongly discredited, and many researchers are very skeptical of Rossi's claims. (Whether or not it is cold fusion, such claims fall under the umbrella of LENR: "Low Energy Nuclear Reactions").
However, with an $11M investment, "Industrial Heat LLC" (managed by investor Thomas Darden) is now running a 1-year test of this supposed technology, a claimed 1 Megawatt plant. They have not released any formal details of how it is proceeding.
By June 1st 2016, will a credible source report that Industrial Heat LLC has received at least $10M in additional investment, suggesting that at least some are convinced that the technology is real?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.