Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?
The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 London time, following a referendum held in June 2016 in which 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU, and 48.11% voted to remain.
As the closeness of the result suggests, this has been a very controversial affair within the UK. It has also proven difficult for UK and EU negotiators to agree on the terms of the exit, and the deal currently on the table (which EU officials say is not renegotiable) seems unlikely to be acceptable to the UK Parliament; but few want a no-deal exit, and it is widely (though not universally) felt that the referendum result makes remaining in the EU unacceptable.
In this difficult situation, one concern is that some options might be so unacceptable to some or all of the UK's population that they would lead to protests, violence or even insurrection. Metaculus already has a question asking whether this will happen if Brexit goes ahead on schedule. This question, conversely, asks: will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if Brexit is cancelled or delayed?
This question resolves ambiguously if Brexit occurs on schedule on 29 March 2019. Otherwise, it resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that rioting has taken place anywhere in the United Kingdom or Gibraltar as a result of the delay or cancellation. For positive resolution, the rioting must occur within 30 days of 23:00 London time 29 March 2019 and must directly result in damages to property (cars, shops, windows, etc.) amounting to at least £100,000 (≈$126,900).
(The resolution terms here are intended to be as closely parallel as possible to those of the earlier question.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.