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Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?

The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 London time, following a referendum held in June 2016 in which 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU, and 48.11% voted to remain.

As the closeness of the result suggests, this has been a very controversial affair within the UK. It has also proven difficult for UK and EU negotiators to agree on the terms of the exit, and the deal currently on the table (which EU officials say is not renegotiable) seems unlikely to be acceptable to the UK Parliament; but few want a no-deal exit, and it is widely (though not universally) felt that the referendum result makes remaining in the EU unacceptable.

In this difficult situation, one concern is that some options might be so unacceptable to some or all of the UK's population that they would lead to protests, violence or even insurrection. Metaculus already has a question asking whether this will happen if Brexit goes ahead on schedule. This question, conversely, asks: will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if Brexit is cancelled or delayed?

This question resolves ambiguously if Brexit occurs on schedule on 29 March 2019. Otherwise, it resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that rioting has taken place anywhere in the United Kingdom or Gibraltar as a result of the delay or cancellation. For positive resolution, the rioting must occur within 30 days of 23:00 London time 29 March 2019 and must directly result in damages to property (cars, shops, windows, etc.) amounting to at least £100,000 (≈$126,900).

(The resolution terms here are intended to be as closely parallel as possible to those of the earlier question.)


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