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16 comments
52 forecasters

Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?

Anthropicresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
Google DeepMindresult: No
Authors:
jleibowichwill_aldred
Opened:Sep 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 13, 2025
AI Safety
Artificial Intelligence
Computing and Math
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

0.3% chance
117

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind
13%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
3%
14 others
85 forecasters

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

15% chance
35
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