16 comments
52 forecasters
Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?
Anthropicresult: No
OpenAIresult: No
Google DeepMindresult: No
Authors:
Opened:Sep 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 13, 2025
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Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.3% chance
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Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
85 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
15% chance
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