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3 comments
21 forecasters

Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025?

Anthropicresult: No
Google DeepMindresult: No
OpenAIresult: Yes
Authors:
jleibowichwill_aldred
Opened:Sep 30, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 21, 2025
AI Safety
Artificial Intelligence
Computing and Math
2021-2025 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

15% chance
33

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

2026
64%
2030
37%
2036
20%
35 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

0.3% chance
117
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