Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Will this question resolve in the negative?


With all the uncertainty in the world, sometimes it's nice to have a nice clear-cut yes-or-no question.

To slightly elaborate on the title, this question will resolve in the positive if:

  • the question resolves in the negative


  • today is a day in which the truth value of all statements beginning with "today" are mapped onto those statements' negations.


  • Every even integer greater than two can be expressed as the sum of two primes.

OR (

  • The set of all even integers is equal in size to the set of all multiple of 23.


  • everything that is not black is not a raven

) OR (

  • The following sentence is false


  • The preceding sentence is true


The question will be resolved on a day between Monday 4/4 and Friday 4/8 that will be a surprise. (Of course, if it remains unresolved by 4/8, it can't be a surprise, so it has to resolve before that. But then, if it has not resolved by 4/7, it also can't be a surprise...)

There is a 1% chance that this question will retroactively resolve before it opens, or that not all ravens are black.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site