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Will this question resolve in the negative?

With all the uncertainty in the world, sometimes it's nice to have a nice clear-cut yes-or-no question.

To slightly elaborate on the title, this question will resolve in the positive if:

  • the question resolves in the negative

OR

  • today is a day in which the truth value of all statements beginning with "today" are mapped onto those statements' negations.

OR

  • Every even integer greater than two can be expressed as the sum of two primes.

OR (

  • The set of all even integers is equal in size to the set of all multiple of 23.

AND

  • everything that is not black is not a raven

) OR (

  • The following sentence is false

AND

  • The preceding sentence is true

)

The question will be resolved on a day between Monday 4/4 and Friday 4/8 that will be a surprise. (Of course, if it remains unresolved by 4/8, it can't be a surprise, so it has to resolve before that. But then, if it has not resolved by 4/7, it also can't be a surprise...)

There is a 1% chance that this question will retroactively resolve before it opens, or that not all ravens are black.

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Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.