Question

Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?

Resolved:Yes

14 comments14

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction

99%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

29.5

Community Peer Score

4.3

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 13, 2023

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Why AI Regulation Has Become a ‘States’ Rights’ Issue

Time•Jun 25, 2025

Transparency Deferred: What The UK’s Data Bill Means For Music, AI And Copyright

Forbes•Jun 25, 2025

What AI Really Can Do Now: 6 Lessons for Harnessing Artificial Intelligence

Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025

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Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 13, 2023

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Future of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Why AI Regulation Has Become a ‘States’ Rights’ Issue

Time•Jun 25, 2025

Transparency Deferred: What The UK’s Data Bill Means For Music, AI And Copyright

Forbes•Jun 25, 2025

What AI Really Can Do Now: 6 Lessons for Harnessing Artificial Intelligence

Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%