232 forecasters

Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 9, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 3, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 10, 2023

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel-Gaza Conflict

2023 Leaderboard

Would Israel carry out assassinations in Britain?

Spectator (UK)•Sep 13, 2025

Inside the Israeli operation that derailed peace talks and shocked the Middle East

CNN•Sep 11, 2025

Netanyahu warns Israel may strike Hamas in Qatar again after Trump declares it "will not happen"

CBS•Sep 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

How many US military personnel will be killed by Iran or its proxies before 2026?