Question

When will be the next war between "great powers" (defined using GDP, population, or permanent membership on UN Security Council)?

9

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction

Feb 2042

(Feb 2034 - Jul 2056)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2099
community	Feb 2034	Feb 2042	Jul 2056	5.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Feb 2034	—
median	Feb 2042	—
upper 75%	Jul 2056	—
Upper bound
>2099	5.9%	—

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Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Oct 20, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 23, 2023

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Oct 20, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 23, 2023