🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?

Resolved :743560
5
10
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction560 (391 - 777)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2k
...
...
...
...
390.8
560.2
777.3
0.4%

What was the final result?743

Community Baseline Score
52.3
Community Peer Score
16.6
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Global Pulse Tournament
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Air defense identification zone

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