2 comments
62 forecasters
Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?
2%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 2% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Dec 1, 2023
Closes:Feb 29, 2024
Resolved:May 31, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2024
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
25% chance
1.4k
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
09 Mar 2027
(26 Sep 2026 - 15 Dec 2027)
16 forecasters
How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
6 labs
(4.64 - 8.06)
6 labs
(4.64 - 8.06)
67 forecasters