Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

62 forecasters

4

62 forecasters

Global Pulse Tournament

Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?

ResolvedNo

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

1 comment43 forecasters

GPT-6 release date?

Current estimate

2 comments4 forecasters

OpenAI or Anthropic — higher valuation on Jan 1, 2027?

AnthropicHidden

27 comments118 forecasters

Will Claude Mythos be released before Sep 2026?

4 comments63 forecasters

Frontier model released in 2029 without third-party evals?

4 comments72 forecasters

Open-source AI regulation 2028

3 comments19 forecasters

Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?

10 comments41 forecasters

Number of New Leading AI Labs

13 comments13 forecasters

5 million token context AI

Current estimate