Question

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

18%

(10% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 18%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Dec 31, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 3, 2024

Geopolitics

Footage Shows China Firing Water Cannon at US Ally Near Disputed Territory

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

China, Philippines report encounter in South China Sea

•Jun 22, 2025

Pan-Pacific Tensions Heat Up in Geopolitical Power Vacuum

PJ Media•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

12%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

69%