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100 Deaths from China/Taiwan Conflict by 2050

Question

2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Graham Allison and The Brookings Institute have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering Taiwan.

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:

  • There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.
  • There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.

These 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.

This question will resolve as No otherwise.

In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.

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