91 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

For-profit80%

Government20%

Non-profit5%

For-profit

Government

Non-profit

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 9, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Situational Awareness

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

‘Selling coffee beans to Starbucks’ – how the AI boom could leave AI’s biggest companies behind

TechCrunch•Sep 14, 2025

Karen Hao on the Empire of AI, AGI evangelists, and the cost of belief

TechCrunch•Sep 14, 2025

OpenAI reaches new agreement with Microsoft to change its corporate structure

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a non-profit corporation?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?