31 comments
480 forecasters
Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
40%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 40% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 16, 2024
Resolved:Dec 18, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?
1% chance
21
In the following U.S. presidential elections, will any state fail to submit a slate of electoral votes to Congress by the safe harbor deadline?
44 forecasters
Will the losing major-party candidate in the following U.S. presidential elections refuse to concede defeat before electors meet?
47 forecasters