34 comments
489 forecasters
Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?
0.8%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
26 May 2027
(27 Sep 2025 - 21 Feb 2030)
26 May 2027
(27 Sep 2025 - 21 Feb 2030)
141 forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Jan 2031
(23 Aug 2026 - Aug 2040)
Jan 2031
(23 Aug 2026 - Aug 2040)
181 forecasters
When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
15 Aug 2026
(26 Jun 2025 - 21 Mar 2028)
15 Aug 2026
(26 Jun 2025 - 21 Mar 2028)
296 forecasters