Question
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
Total Forecasters139
Community Prediction2027-02-28 (2025-06-30 - 2029-11-24)
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CDF
weight:
Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
lower 25% | 2025 | — |
median | 2027 | — |
upper 75% | 2029 | — |
Upper bound | ||
>2081-06-20 | 0.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jun 18, 2021
Closes:Jun 20, 2081
Scheduled resolution:Jun 20, 2081
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Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 18, 2021
Closes:Jun 20, 2081
Scheduled resolution:Jun 20, 2081
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?
73.4
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
2031-06-01
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
2025-08-06