93 comments
726 forecasters
Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
0.8%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 1, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2024
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
01 Dec 2027
(06 Nov 2026 - 21 Mar 2029)
01 Dec 2027
(06 Nov 2026 - 21 Mar 2029)
201 forecasters
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
46 forecasters
When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?
07 Aug 2026
(11 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2027)
07 Aug 2026
(11 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2027)
60 forecasters