Group
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
Forecast Timeline
Make a Prediction
OOMs
median
PDF
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Mar 12, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
06 Jul 2027
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
60%
Authors:
Opened:Mar 12, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
06 Jul 2027
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
60%