95 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%

Microsoft4%

xAI3%

Google DeepMind

Microsoft

xAI

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 12, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

🏆 2024-2025 Leaderboard

ChatGPT: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot

TechCrunch•Oct 17, 2025

OpenAI accused of using legal tactics to silence nonprofits

NBC•Oct 15, 2025

AI Bubble May Pop — Wiping Out $40 Trillion. Learn What Could Happen And What To Do

Forbes•Oct 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch