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95 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft4%
xAI3%
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Opened:Mar 12, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
126 forecasters
Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?
60% chance
49
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
35 forecasters