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6 comments
99 forecasters

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

5%chance
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:Jan 31, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2024
AGI Outcomes
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Natural Sciences
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What WILL lead to humanity's demise? As Bill Gates says it won't be climate change, experts reveal the bleak reality of our extinction
Daily Mail•Oct 29, 2025
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Global Superintelligence Arms Race: 4 Key Players
Forbes•Oct 29, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

70% chance
126

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85% chance
147

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35% chance
413
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