Question

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction

15%

(11.5% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

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Authors:

RyanBeck TomL

Opened:

Feb 1, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2024

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Footage Shows China Firing Water Cannon at US Ally Near Disputed Territory

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

China's support for Tehran grows more restrained as U.S. enters war between Israel and Iran

•Jun 23, 2025

China’s response to Iran conflict more concerning if West loses, vs retribution for defeating its Tehran ally

FOX News•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%