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44 forecasters
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
36%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 6, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2028
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 9, 2024
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
57% chance
1.1k
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
0.1% chance
33
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
854 forecasters