5 comments
41 forecasters
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
33%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 6, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2031
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 9, 2024
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80% chance
141
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
78% chance
34
Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?
2% chance
75