Question

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction

25%

(15% - 40%)

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50%

community: 25%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Pan-Pacific Tensions Heat Up in Geopolitical Power Vacuum

PJ Media•Jun 21, 2025

Why is China rushing to grow its nuclear arsenal?

Spectator (UK)•Jun 21, 2025

Is Donald Trump Considering Tactical Nukes Against Iran? What We Know

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

42%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Pan-Pacific Tensions Heat Up in Geopolitical Power Vacuum

PJ Media•Jun 21, 2025

Why is China rushing to grow its nuclear arsenal?

Spectator (UK)•Jun 21, 2025

Is Donald Trump Considering Tactical Nukes Against Iran? What We Know

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

42%

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

70%