41 forecasters

Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

20%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Apr 18, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 23, 2024

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China Breaks Silence After Flexing Nuclear Triad for First Time

Newsweek•Sep 11, 2025

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Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?