2 comments
43 forecasters
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?
80%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 21, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2042
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2043
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 24, 2024
Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?
1.1% chance
72
Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?
48% chance
13
Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?
0.1% chance
60