Make a Prediction
US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? | 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes? |
|---|---|
| My Prediction: — | |
| My Prediction: — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
28 forecasters
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
20% chance
41
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
3% chance
44
Authors:
Opened:Apr 18, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
28 forecasters
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
20% chance
41
Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
3% chance
44