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1 comment
105 forecasters

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?

0.5%chance
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Authors:
will_aldred
Opened:May 9, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:May 12, 2024
Bright Line Watch Tournament
Economy & Business
Artificial Intelligence
Daily Mail logo
Record low worker confidence casts chill over US jobs market
Daily Mail•Sep 14, 2025
Business Insider logo
Sam Altman predicts AI will take customer service jobs first — and speed up a 'historical' rate of job turnover
Business Insider•Sep 11, 2025
Breitbart logo
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei Doubles Down on Warning that AI Could Eliminate Half of Entry-Level Jobs
Breitbart•Sep 9, 2025
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Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?

2% chance
28

Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise?

2030
10%
2026
2%
2023
No
1 other
43 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be the U.S.’s employment to population ratio?

37.4%
(23.6 - 53.6)
37.4%
(23.6 - 53.6)
26 forecasters
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