Question
How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
44.2 people
(22.1 people - 112 people)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 22.07 | — |
| median | 44.23 | — |
| upper 75% | 112.4 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10k | 0.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 3, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2024
Authors:
Opened:May 3, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2024