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Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?
Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film Sight (2012).
Researchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have been working on the science and technology since at least 2009, and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are working on bringing these out.
Will these be popular among at least "innovators" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025
Will 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025
Resolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.