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Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?
A major recent advance in genetic engineering has occurred in the past several years with the discovery of CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats), a bacterial DNA sequence that codes for a protein (Cas9) and RNA combination that can locate a specific DNA sequence and splice the DNA strand at that location. This enables dramatically simplified genetic editing and engineering relative to recombinant DNA technologies.
Recently, biotech startup Editas has announced that it hopes to begin clinical trials using CRISPR to modify the DNA of living adult humans to treat a rare eye disease called Leber congenital amaurosis.
Will Editas or another company enter into the US database a clinical trial with a start date prior to Dec. 31, 2017 that uses CRISPR to modify the DNA of a living human in order to treat a medical condition?
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.