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Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?

Question

Until Barack Obama, every single US president has been a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man. Will we revert to that trend?

This is an excercise in combining probabilities.

At the time of publication, we have three major contenders for the Democratic nomination: Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley.

Of these, only O'Malley would fit the characteristics in the question (Sanders being Jewish and Clinton female).

On the Republican side, we have Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, and Trump.

Of these, Bush, Christie, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Santorum, and Trump fit the characteristics of the question (this counts Cruz and Rubio as Hispanic.)

As a simple example, if we assume that all Democratic candidates are equally likely to receive the Democratic nomination, and all Republican candidates are equally likely to receive the Republican nomination, and that there is a 50-50 chance of a Republican or Democrat winning, then the probability for this question to resolve in the positive would be:

0.5 x (8/12) + 0.5 x (1/3) = 50%

In reality, the various probabilities are not equal and a different calculation should be done. So what do you think:

Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?

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