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Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?

Until Barack Obama, every single US president has been a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man. Will we revert to that trend?

This is an excercise in combining probabilities.

At the time of publication, we have three major contenders for the Democratic nomination: Clinton, Sanders, and O'Malley.

Of these, only O'Malley would fit the characteristics in the question (Sanders being Jewish and Clinton female).

On the Republican side, we have Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, and Trump.

Of these, Bush, Christie, Gilmore, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Santorum, and Trump fit the characteristics of the question (this counts Cruz and Rubio as Hispanic.)

As a simple example, if we assume that all Democratic candidates are equally likely to receive the Democratic nomination, and all Republican candidates are equally likely to receive the Republican nomination, and that there is a 50-50 chance of a Republican or Democrat winning, then the probability for this question to resolve in the positive would be:

0.5 x (8/12) + 0.5 x (1/3) = 50%

In reality, the various probabilities are not equal and a different calculation should be done. So what do you think:

Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?


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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.