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Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?
Airborne pathogens pose a high pandemic threat because they can so easily spread from person to person, making effective quarantine very difficult. A number of such pathogens in both viral (e.g. Flu, Smallpox, and of course the Common Cold) and bacterial (e.g. Tuberculosis, Whooping Cough) form are well known, and new ones are periodically discovered.
Both transmissibility and fatality rates vary significant across such diseases. The cold is generally highly transmissible but very rarely fatal. The relatively new MERS coronavirus is fatal in of order 40% of cases, though its transmissibility is currently low.
Most worrisome are pathogens combining high transmissibility with a relatively high fatality rate: the Spanish Flu, with a 5-10% fatality rate and very easy airborne transmission, was a tragic example. How likely is the emergence of another possible example in the next few years?
By 2019 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report cases of a naturally-occurring qualitatively new airborne pathogen with a mortality rate of > 5%?
We'll consider a pathogen "qualitatively new" if it is given a unique new name or official nomenclature and widely described as "new." We define a "potential death rate of X" as being fulfilled by any report of > 100 cases in which > X death occurs, or in which > 1 death is reported in a number of reported cases exceeding 100/X. We will consider a pathogen airborne if the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific article verifies that it can in at least some cases be spread without direct contact between people and without contact with bodily fluids or via an intermediate vector.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.