Question

Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Resolved:No

1 comment1

Total Forecasters109

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

99.3

Community Peer Score

1.7

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

May 24, 2024

Closes:

Jun 6, 2024

Resolves:

Jun 7, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 25, 2024

🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

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Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

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Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

50%