calculating probable wisdom exploring calibrated forecasts assembling intelligent wisdom generating probable insights calculating critical estimations mapping the future generating calibrated forecasts computing intelligent wisdom predicting intelligent understanding calculating calibrated estimations calculating intelligent contingencies exploring accurate understanding mapping quantitative insights computing calibrated futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?

Among their many irritating qualities, mosquitos act as highly efficient carriers of disease. Malaria, caused by the plasmodium protozoa, is the prime and widespread example, with approx. 200M cases in 2014 leading to approx. 440K fatalities in 2015, according to the WHO. Mosquito-borne viral illnesses include Yellow Fever, Dengue Fever, Japanese Encephalitis, West Nile virus, and a host of others.

Many mosquito-borne illnesses are have been known since ancient times, but some new ones are regularly discovered. The Zika virus, first isolated in the 1950s in humans, has recently become a major health threat, and is the subject of several other questions. While Zika has an even lower mortality rate than malaria (its larger threat being to the as-yet-unborn), other recently-emerged pathogens could be worse. For example, Eastern Equine Encephalitis discovered in the 1930's, has a much higher fatality rate of ~30% (fortunately its prime carrier mosquito feeds almost exclusively on birds.)

An illness that spreads like Zika or Malaria but with a relatively high fatality rate could be a huge public health threat.

By 2018 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report that a naturally-occurring qualitatively new mosquito-borne pathogen with a potential death rate of > 2% has been discovered?

We'll consider a pathogen "qualitatively new" if it is given a unique new name or official nomenclature and widely described as "new." We define a "potential death rate of X" as being fulfilled by any report of > 100 cases in which > X death occurs, or in which > 1 death is reported in a number of reported cases exceeding 100/X. We will consider a pathogen mosquito-borne if the CDC, WHO, or published scientific article verifies that it can be spread from human-to-human via a type of mosquito for which humans are a major food source.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.