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Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

Some of the least pleasant diseases humans have dealt with are those transmitted by direct person-to-person contact via blood, saliva, or other bodily fluids. Hepatitis, HIV/AIDs, and hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola and Marburg are key examples.

While this transmission method is much less efficient than an airborne mode, it can be very dangerous. AIDs/HIV, due to its long quiet incubation period, spread quite widely before even being identified. The recent Ebola outbreak caused of order 30,000 cases and grew very rapidly for a while before being brought under control.

By Jan. 1, 2019 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report that a naturally-occurring qualitatively new pathogen spreadable via person-to-person contact (but not mosquito-transmitted or airborne) with a potential death rate of > 10% has been discovered

We'll consider a pathogen "qualitatively new" if it is given a unique new name or official nomenclature and widely described as "new." We define a "potential death rate of X" as being fulfilled by any report of > 100 cases in which > X death occurs, or in which > 1 death is reported in a number of reported cases exceeding 100/X.


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