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Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?

Some of the least pleasant diseases humans have dealt with are those transmitted by direct person-to-person contact via blood, saliva, or other bodily fluids. Hepatitis, HIV/AIDs, and hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola and Marburg are key examples.

While this transmission method is much less efficient than an airborne mode, it can be very dangerous. AIDs/HIV, due to its long quiet incubation period, spread quite widely before even being identified. The recent Ebola outbreak caused of order 30,000 cases and grew very rapidly for a while before being brought under control.

By Jan. 1, 2019 will the CDC, WHO, or a published scientific paper report that a naturally-occurring qualitatively new pathogen spreadable via person-to-person contact (but not mosquito-transmitted or airborne) with a potential death rate of > 10% has been discovered

We'll consider a pathogen "qualitatively new" if it is given a unique new name or official nomenclature and widely described as "new." We define a "potential death rate of X" as being fulfilled by any report of > 100 cases in which > X death occurs, or in which > 1 death is reported in a number of reported cases exceeding 100/X.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.