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Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit?

This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.

Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his readership again, and we've selected for inclusion on Metaculus several of his proposed investigations.

We are using Scott's language, and resolutions will be determined by his own resolution of the questions. Also note that no claims are made as to the makeup or representativeness of the readers responding to SSC's survey, so bear that in mind as you make your predictions.

Question: Are people more likely to attribute success to hard work/talent rather than luck if they are from a higher childhood social class?

NB: When SSC publishes the relevant blog post, this question will retroactively close one hour prior to that post.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.